Who would of thought that the 2009 Chapell-Hadlee Trophy would come down to this. First of all no one expected New Zealand to even win a game against Australia in Australia, even after their 4 - 1 series defeat at the hands of South Africa. Enter the New Zealand bowling attack (Mills and O'Brien in particular), restricting Australia to mere totals of 181 and 225 in the 1st and 2nd ODIs respectively. Just when you thought Australia were at their extreme low points, they pull a rabbit out of the hat and win the next two ODIs quite convincingly. Now we are down to tomorrow's winner takes all contest; the decider at the Gabba.
At this stage, you would say that Australia are firm favorites to win this based on form and the fact that they are ranked higher than New Zealand. However, it is these situations that New Zealand really step up and play their best cricket. New Zealand's past two defeats have been stimulated by poor toss decisions made by Daniel Vettori. In the 3rd ODI, Vettori won the toss and decided to bowl first. It was on a pitch where batting first is a clear advantage due to the pitch conditions. In the 4th ODI, Vettori again won the toss but decided to bat first. Another bad decision considering that the pitch does not change over the course of 100 overs and New Zealand are not very good at setting a total. New Zealand bowlers haven't bowled as tight as they did in the first 2 ODIs; their fielders weren't as athletic as they were - missfields and dropped catches and the batsmen have struggled to pace their innings (bar Elliot and Taylor). Australia have really turned their poor form by outplaying New Zealand in all aspects - bowling, fielding and batting. The Australian bowlers have really kept a leash on the New Zealand top and middle order. In particular, James Hopes has really starred with the ball, taking wickets as regular intervals as well as conceding just 3.47. Their batsmen have finally converted their starts to big scores and propelling their innings total to a matchwinning total/chase.
Daniel Vettori has surprisingly had a poor series with the ball, taking only one wicket in four games. In the 3rd and 4th ODI, he could not restrict the hosts as they continued to attack him and doing so effectively. Most notable player who has taken Vettori to the cleaners is Brad Haddin. Expect Vettori to make an impact on this game, especially in situations such as this.
Brendon McCullum has really been disappointing ever since his promotion to opener. McCullum will occasionally hit a great few shots but in the next few balls, he will be out. This is ODI, not Twenty20. McCullum batting average of 29 does not reflect the sort of ability with McCullum. If McCullum fires and plays his natural aggressive game, New Zealand could be 100/0 in as little as 10 overs (which he showed against West Indies in 5th ODI). McCullum really has to fire this game or else he should consider playing down the order again - where he can boost the middle order.
Mitchell Johnson has had a great series with the ball and looks to have regained the form that enabled him to take 5 - 2 in a few overs in a truely magnificent spell. Though he can be inconsistent with his line and length. If Johnson fires with the ball, Australia will fire.
Brad Haddin has really played himself into great form in the past 2 ODIs. Since being promoted to opener, Brad Haddin has 152 runs in 2 games, including a magificent maiden century in the 3rd ODI. He was also on track for a big score until he was run out by David Hussey. If Brad Haddin can make a big contribution, that will boost the confidence and set the tempo for the rest of the Australian batting order and hence, Australia will win.
It is most likely that Australia will bat first and New Zealand will chase. New Zealand know too well that this is probably the only and best chance to beat Australia in Australia in an ODI series. New Zealand to win just.
Chapell-Hadlee Trophy comes down to one match
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